Monday, August 12, 2013
Open Letter to the Incoming, Delusional JD Class of 2016
Dear Misguided Fool,
You will soon begin orientation at your particular law school. I am sure that you felt proud, when you received your acceptance letter. At this point, you likely still view this as some great accomplishment. Hell, beating your brother in law or nephew at chess is a bigger feat.
ABA Diploma Mills Are Much Less Selective Today:
Due to the continuing decline in the number of applications, law school pigs have lowered their already weak-ass “standards” – in order to keep up enrollment figures. On July 31, 2013, Paul Campos published an excellent blog entry entitled “Law school in America moves toward an open admissions policy.” Check out this killer opening:
“Here is the percentage of law school applicants who were admitted, over the last decade, to at least one ABA-accredited law school to which they applied, by year:
2013: 80% (projected)
The 2013 projection is based on the relation between the total number of applicants in this cycle and the total number of matriculants in the 2013 class, assuming an 8% reduction in the total size of the national law school class relative to 2012.” [Emphasis mine]
In sum, a typical law school applicant seeking to enroll in Fall 2013 had a 43.88% higher chance of getting accepted to at least one ABA-accredited dung pit than someone seeking to enter law school in Autumn 2004, i.e. (80-55.6/55.6)*100. The figures above do not even take into account the fact that the sharpest decline in applications comes from those with the highest LSAT scores! Do you still feel that you are special, Lemming?!?!
The Glutted, Shrinking U.S. Lawyer Job Market:
According to the NALP Class of 2012 National Summary Report, 84.7 percent of this massive cohort was employed within nine months of graduation. Of course, this figure includes non-law positions, attorney jobs, part-time and full-time work, plus long term and temporary posts.
Overall, there were 46,364 members of the JD Class of 2012 – competing for a total of 28,567 jobs labeled “bar passage required.” Keep in mind that not all of those positions were traditional attorney openings. Note that only 45,434 graduates had their info sent to NALP. Using the entire class size, a mere 61.6% of all JDs ended up finding such legal work, i.e. 28,567/46,364. However, this figure jumps all the way up to 64.4 percent, when relying on those for whom employment status was known, i.e. 28,567/44,339.
Gambling With Your Future:
The New Republic published senior editor Noam Schieber's brilliant piece, headlined “The Last Days of Biglaw,” on July 21, 2013. Take a look at the stinging excerpt below:
“Stable” is not the way anyone would describe a legal career today. In the past decade, twelve major firms with more than 1,000 partners between them have collapsed entirely. The surviving lawyers live in fear of suffering a similar fate, driving them to ever-more humiliating lengths to edge out rivals for business. “They were cold-calling,” says the lawyer whose firm once turned down no-name clients. And the competition isn’t just external. Partners routinely make pitches behind the backs of colleagues with ties to a client. They hoard work for themselves even when it requires the expertise of a fellow partner. They seize credit for business that younger colleagues bring in.
And then there are the indignities inflicted on new lawyers, known as associates. The odds are increasingly long that a recent law-school grad will find a job. Five years ago, during a recession, American law schools produced 43,600 graduates and 75 percent had positions as lawyers within nine months. Last year, the numbers were 46,500 and 64 percent. In addition to the emotional toll unemployment exacts, it is often financially ruinous. The average law student graduates $100,000 in debt.
Meanwhile, those lucky enough to have a job are constantly reminded of their expendability.” [Emphasis mine]
By the way, lemming: Schieber is a Rhodes Scholar who earned a Master’s degree in economics from Oxford University. Do you think - for one moment - that YOU have a better understanding of job markets than this man?!?! When Biglaw opportunities are limited, graduates from top-ranked law schools end up taking jobs that traditionally went to second tier grads, i.e. public interest, legal aid, etc.
Conclusion: The following facts are irrefutable: (a) the U.S. attorney job market is GLUTTED, throughout the country; (b) automation, outsourcing, and globalization keep growing in scope; (c) law school tuition continues to SKYROCKET; and (d) recent JDs are graduating with mountains of NON-DISCHARGABLE debt.
Based on increasing tuition rates, current victims can expect to walk away owing even larger sums of student loans. Taken together, these facts should hit your gray matter with force. People attend “professional” school, because they want to enter a secure career – and make a solid living. Why the hell else would one willingly incur $120K-190K in total student debt? YOU need to view law school SOLELY as a financial decision, because it will affect you for several decades – if not the rest of your life. The “professors” and administrators DO NOT GIVE ONE DAMN about you or your future. In stark contrast, they are paid up front, in full – while you are left holding the bag. They need to keep getting asses in seats, in order to get their filthy hooves and paws on those federally-backed, student loan dollars.
Posted by Nando at 8:01 AM