Saturday, July 26, 2014

Great News: Law School Applications for Fall 2014 Are Down Another Eight Percent!


http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/law_school_applications_down_8_percent_new_lsac_survey_shows_theyve_dropped/?utm_source=maestro&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly_email

The Glorious News: On July 22, 2014, the ABA Journal published a piece from Martha Neil, under the headline “Law school applications down 37 percent since 2010; first-year class could be smallest in 40 years.” Check out this opening:

“Those hoping that a multiyear trend of declining law school applications and admissions would come to an end this year are confronting disappointing statistics.

Applications for the class that begins law school this fall are down 8 percent following double-digit declines the two previous years, according to statistics compiled by the Law School Admission Council. That adds up to a total drop in applications of 37 percent since 2010, and likely means an entering class of around 38,000, a University of North Carolina law professor tells the National Law Journal (sub. req.).

If law professor Alfred Brophy is right, that would be the smallest group to enter American Bar Association-accredited law schools since 1974, the article says. In 2010, a total of 52,488 individuals began their first year of law school.

Brophy called the numbers "a real morale buster," and said it's unclear when the enrollment decline will stop. "Law school just isn't the path into the middle class that it once was," he told the legal publication.” [Emphasis mine]

This is what happens when you bring unfiltered, solid information to college graduates. Once law schools could no longer assert 98 percent employment placement rates for their recent classes, lemmings began to notice a significant drop in this metric.
  
Brophy is correct, even if he engaged in a huge understatement. Perhaps, in the 1980s and early 1990s – when tuition was relatively dirt cheap - law school provided a decent chance to enter the middle class. Now if you attend, you will essentially be required to incur an additional $100K-$180K in NON-DISCHARGEABLE debt – for a realistic chance to land a job that pays $35K-$45K annually. Who in their right mind would make this decision?!?!

The article then continued:

“However, Northwestern University's law school dean said the hope that the number of law school applications would remain the same or go up this year was based on "wishful thinking."

"Frankly, there was never a very good theory as to why we would see a correction this year, nor did the data point in that direction," dean Daniel Rodriguez told the NLJ. He serves as president of the Association of American Law Schools.”

When these academic devils engage in wishful thinking, you know that the toilets are in trouble. By the way, there was also never a good theory as to why the U.S. lawyer job market would recover by 2012 or 2013 either. The pigs merely snorted that nonsense, in order to get more asses in seats.

http://abovethelaw.com/2014/07/why-one-law-school-is-bucking-the-downward-trend-on-applications/#more-332173

Other Coverage: Elie Mystal wrote an entry labeled “Why One Law School Is Bucking The Downward Trend On Applications” – on July 22, 2014. After noting that one new, non-ABA accredited Texas commode is seeing a rise in applications, the author makes the following insight:

“When will other law schools accept this basic lesson? The tuition is too damn high! If law schools want more people to buy their product, they must reduce the price and offer good value. It’s that simple.

Instead of charging like Yale but being not as good, why can’t more law schools charge like UNT but try to be better?”[Emphasis mine]

The main reason why the schools don’t lower tuition is because the “professors” demand to be paid ridiculous sums of money, for “working” 4-6 hours per week. If you want to make $180K+ per year in the private sector, then you will be expected to work your ass to the bone. In the event that you are not productive – or it becomes more “cost effective” to replace you – then you will be shown the door. In stark contrast, these “educators” can sit in their office all day reading the Wall Street Journal and writing obscure law review articles.

http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2014/07/22/law-school-applicant-pool-continues-to-shrink/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%253A%252F%252Fblogs.wsj.com%252Flaw%252F2014%252F07%252F22%252Flaw-school-applicant-pool-continues-to-shrink

On July 22, 2014, the Wall Street Journal Law Blog published Jennifer Smith’s article, “Law School Applicant Pool Continues to Shrink.” Look at the following portion:

“The pool of would-be lawyers continues to shrink for the fourth year in a row, bad news for law schools already hard-hit by declining enrollment amid a tough legal job market.

The number of law school applicants this year is down by more than 37% compared to 2010, according to the National Law Journal, which analyzed the latest numbers from the Law School Admission Council…

Some law schools have cut staff and pruned faculty to cope with budgetary woes. Others have watched their credit ratings dip, particularly some smaller or stand-alone laws schools.

The most recent data on Law School Admission Test takers doesn’t inspire much confidence either. As Law Blog reported in June, the 21,802 people who sat for the LSAT that month represents the lowest June total in 14 years.” [Emphasis mine]

Conclusion: Don’t feel bad for the law schools and the “professors.” They have fed off the flesh and bones of students and taxpayers for far too long. The schools published false and misleading data for years, in an attempt to lure in more victims. These “scholars” collectively pumped out FAR MORE GRADUATES than there were available lawyer openings – for decades! They then began touting a law degree as a ticket to an unlimited number of great opportunities. Lastly, when many JDs were unable to land decent employment - due to the GLUT of attorneys and lack of good non-legal jobs - the swine began to blame the grads. Now, they are reaping what they sowed.

35 comments:

  1. This is excellent news, Nando. The pigs are on the ropes and almost ready to go down. You can certainly share the credit for this.

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  2. And that's why the ABA is now letting law schools waive the LSAT for up to 10% of the class.

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  3. A move in the right direction.

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  4. I'm glad the class will be smaller but it's still too big. Aren't there about 25k lawyer opening a year? And how many of those pay a decent wage?

    And again I like lower tuition at this Texas school but I went to law school in Texas and this was the last thing needed. Too many lawyers already. These won't have as much debt but they will be jobless.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not to mention the "excess" graduates from 2008-2014.

      25k jobs for the newest cohort of 38,000 students PLUS the extra students from previous years. So, 25,000 jobs for probably 70,000 to 120,000 people. Great odds! Surely worth 200k debt.

      Delete
    2. No, there are not 20k new legal jobs being created per year.

      The Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012 to 2022 job growth estimate for attorneys is +74,800, or if actually created and created evenly over those ten years = 7,480 jobs per year.

      7,480 is a rosy estimate. There is NO DEMAND for marginally-skilled, entry-level legal labor. NONE.

      The total combined graduates for the next decade to normalize over-supply in the profession should be ZERO.

      Delete
  5. Applications down 8% means that first year enrollment will probably only be down 4%. You think these greedy fools are gonna give up on that easy money? They'll just accept more of the dummies.

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  6. While it's great to hear that enrollment is declining, it is still depressing to know that way too many people are still being herded into law schools like sheep into a slaughterhouse. Enrollment could drop 50%, and there would still be an oversupply of lawyers. Of course, our friends at the American Bar Association and other "prestigious" organizations still choose to turn a blind eye to this reality.

    Seriously. Is there any other self-regulating profession in the United States that is on such a self-destructive course?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, there is not. The legal profession is by far the most predatory and self-destructive.

      Delete
    2. @5:37

      Yes. If you could sum this entire profession, starting with legal education, up in one word then it would most certainly be predatory. Were I able to have looked past my undergrad naivete and idealism and see this profession in this light, then I would have never chosen to enroll.

      It's nothing more than a pyramid scheme. Let me repeat that for the lemmings: It's nothing more than a pyramid scheme.

      Delete
    3. No, I have to disagree. With the exception of medicine and dentistry, they all are self-destructive--but the destructive tendencies are new for non-law (maybe 14 years-old). Nursing schools have exploded (but they at least try to carve out doctor turf), physiotherapy is now a doctorate degree (skies the limit on tuition and cash cow entrepreneurship for colleges), pharmacy has doubled graduates in only fourteen years and is rapidly approaching law, teacher boards are now allowing non-certified people (now even troops) into the classroom. It goes on and on. At least you need a U.S. law degree to practice law. Any pharmacist can take a mediocre licensing test and work in the U.S. The only barrier is a visa. We need to shut down schools and make loan issuing dependent on percent of students employed and not defaulting; IBR is a PR band aid.

      Though it's sad the federal government institute loans during the Reagan administration, while gutting sponsored seat models of funding higher ed, the alternative is worthless degrees with the market high jacking non-discharable loans.

      Delete
  7. At this point dummies are the majority of entering law school classes.

    The really smart and/or connected kids are going HYS. A few of them are at Berkeley, Chicago and NYU. With a few spread out at places like Duke, UVA and Columbia. Those are the ones that are going to land article III clerkships and many of them (e.g. the winners) will be rolled outta Biglaw in a few years. Got that dummies?

    Meanwhile people attending tier 2, tier 3 and tier 4 law schools are still paying about the same in tuition. And those people are competing for shit jobs. If you're going to one of these low ranked shitholes now, you're a total idiot. And you deserve to get fucked by the lying law schools. And don't be begging for a bailout later for your shitty stupid decision to attend law school.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The really smart kids are refusing to even go to those schools, instead opting to skip the waste of 3 years and the likely debt and instead excelling in other careers. Or just going to medical school.

      If you are smart enough to make HYS you are smart enough to go to medical school.

      Delete
    2. the med school route is as hard as harvard but more than double the years. you must want medical more than anything in the world, even your wife...
      It's a profession that protects itself, but you will hate yourself if you do it for the money rewards--a great job with a horrible lifestyle. I imagine working at a big firm is like medical working, training may be worse.

      Delete
  8. The oversupply of lawyers is so bad, that HYS does not mean a full-time permanent job for many lawyers down the road.

    The big law placement that top law schools rely on is placement into a Ponzi scheme. There are not career jobs by a long shot for most lawyers coming out of big law. How could there be when the legal profession is not growing? Lawyers need to be fired from their jobs, in big numbers, to make room for new lawyers in big numbers.

    Maybe the Harvard lawyer gets one shot in house or at contract partner or whatever after not making partner. When that job does not work out (and usually it won't because law jobs are not stable today), maybe that person can get on the waiting list at Axiom. Putting Axiom on his LinkedIn does not mean Axiom actually has work for the Harvard lawyer.

    Harvard Law, Article III clerkship and unemployment or underemployment for experienced lawyers is a common outcome today.

    At least if you can buy a franchise, you have your own business. If you are a teacher, you have tenure and a pension. Lawyers have none of this except for the minority chosen few who get a lifetime partnership or can make rain.

    ReplyDelete
  9. UNT shall light the way. Honestly, at their prices even an unaccredited JD will be an easily survivable mistake... Thanks to Scambloggers everywhere for making "financial survivability" a major factor in the law school admissions process.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I disagree. This will be over 42000 in nondichargeable debt and the students will leave with no hard skills and diminished job prospects. That's right you can't do crap with that jd except be a lawyer. No other industries want lawyers to do non lawyer things

      Delete
    2. BUT, if some clown is dead-set on going to law scam, 42,000 in debt is way better than the 130,000 you'd have walking out of Baylor.

      Delete
  10. Applications in the toilet for a 4th straight year and these pigs still have their heads up their asses. They're still charging an arm and a leg in tuition.

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  11. The tree gets hits with another strike of the axe.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you know Professor Matiha, Dr. Sunny? He claimed that most bad luck came from four sources: Tormo, Kousa, Booka No. 1, and Booka No. 2. You sent him money, the bad luck went away. Ivan Stang mentioned the good professor in "High Weirdness by Mail" (1988).

      Delete
  13. http://jdjunkyard.forumatic.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=675

    On July 25, 2014, the admin at JD Junkyard started a thread entitled "Law School applications down another 8% this year." On the same day, at 12:15 pm, rock solid user JohnDoeee wrote the following comment:

    "I think we've finally reached a point where most people looking at annual tuitions in excess of $40,000 realize that there isn't a snowball's chance in Hell of ever being out of debt OR of obtaining a good enough job to justify spending that kind of money - money which they don't have and is borrowed - plus the time, etc.

    The cost at this point is irrelevant.

    Spend 3 years on full scholly: Starting job: $35k

    " " $250K in debt. Starting job: $35k

    I mean, the money spent has zero impact on the quality of job at the end.

    But you still must SPEND the money up front to Play.

    We've reached a tipping point. And that's a good thing."

    His analysis is right on the money, once again. In the end, college grads are starting to accept reality. Even those who have too much faith in their average skills and intellect will soon start doing a rudimentary cost-benefit breakdown.

    In sum, if you are not incredibly connected or independently wealthy, then there is no valid reason for incurring such monstrous amounts of NON-DISCHARGEABLE debt. Many first year students believe - or tell themselves - that they will help the underprivileged segments of society, with their JD. Yeah, good luck trying to make a living - while paying back your student loans - doing that type of work.

    Prospective or soon to be law student: Do you honestly think – for one second – that YOU are going to work in legal aid, helping little people with their problems, and drive to the office in a shiny, new Corvette Stingray?!?! If you take on significant student debt for your degree, then you will be lucky to put food in the fridge, pay rent, cover the bills and pay your big-ass loans each month.

    If you decide to go into private practice, representing housewives who want full custody or defending criminals, recognize that they may not be able to cover your legal fees. Also, if you take this route, you better have EXCEPTIONAL sales skills. Remember, established local solos and law firms can blow your ass out of the water – with their advertising budgets alone. Can you pay for billboards, ads on city buses, and daily radio and TV commercials?!?! Plus, are personal injury clients going to hire you over someone that they have heard of for more than a decade?! Hell, do you even have the funds necessary to front costs before a settlement is reached or you somehow win the case?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Who cares if UNT's only charging 14k a year? It's unaccredited. Even if it gets accredited, it doesn't have a reputation and it has no alumni network.

    To me that's a waste of time and money. Less money mind you, but you can't really do much with a law degree from a no name (new) law school.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not only can you not do much with the law degree, you can do less than you could before you went. Grads will be over qualified, perceived as failures, or asshole lawyers. No one hires any of these.

      Law school has three main problems that make up the unholy trinity of the scam:

      1. There are far too many grads for the 25k jobs that are open each year

      2. Tuition is too high based on the jobs grads can get. This is even true for the small numbers going into big law since most of them are out after 5 years. Sure they pay down debt but basically they get back to 0 and give up their lives to do it.

      3. Not only is a jd not versatile but it closes doors. So not only are you entering a field where ther are more grads than the market can handle but other jobs you could have had are closed due to over qualification

      Have a nice day

      Delete
    2. But here's the thing as well, 2:56 AM. And I try to explain this to people as well and they DO NOT get it: You are NOT back at zero, in any way shape or form.

      If the above is the Best Case Scenario, you have paid off your debt but you have a JD on your resume, are now 9-10 years older, and can only really work as a lawyer.

      You are financially back at zero. But you have lost time and opportunity and are worse off in terms of the field(s) you can secure employment in. Options are limited.

      There is a lot more to the law school decision than immediate costs. A lot more. It's not just Today. It's Every Day After That.

      Time and opportunity also must be considered as costs. And they are. Serious costs at that.

      And the above is the Best Case Scenario. What about others? Spend 1-2++ or more years after law school unemployed. Or secure a low-paying job and have to go on IBR / PAYE.

      etc. etc.

      Delete
  15. I would be the last to defend law professors but the 4-6 hour thing is bit over the top. For example, if a professor teaches 6 hours in a semester, that probably means 12 hours of preparation and 2-3 hours of talking to students in office hours. So that's about 21 hours. If you have large classes and not one of the lazy people who give multiply choice exams, you may have a couple of weeks of 10 hours a day including weekends. There is probably about 2-3 hours a week of administrative work. And, while I agree that most of what law profs write is useless, if you do not write, you do not get paid, so add about 10 hours for that. That leaves only a measly 10 hours for gossiping, playing crossword puzzles and drinking coffee.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks Nando and Paul Campos for continuing to get the word out on this scam. I go back and forth on lemmings who should know by now that law school is a losing game. It almost seems that with good information out there, people who want to go to law school are almost too stupid to reason with. I recently ran into a single mother with a PHD who told me she has to move into a small apartment to finance sending her child to a T-40 trap school. If I had know her better, I would have told her that a T-4 law professor had actually counseled my son not to even think about practicing law given the bleak prospects in the profession.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Really-it's not that they are lemmings; they all pretty much know what's going on. It's that they are all Special Snowflakes-yes, they know it will be tough, but they will be the ones that make it. And I'm not sure that much can be done with the Snowflakes; they're beyond reason, beyond statistics...because they're special. The scam will exist as long as there are Special Snowflakes-which will be a very long time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You post much here with that snowflake line. Look, it's based on desperation and society still promoting law and education as panceas to neoliberal restructuring. This was the SOP of shill PhDs and journalists in the 80s and 90s to explain what people would do when all the industry was shipped overseas. Now there is no SOP; they don't even try it.
      People need hard, personal anecdotes to back up the horrible law numbers.

      Delete
  18. Thank you for your comments regarding prissy "law professors," Mr. Harrison. I laugh when I hear these "educators" talk about sacrificing millions in order to teach. When they make such statements, they MUST recognize the stench of verbal diarrhea - as it leaves their mouth. They would need to work a hell of a lot more than 6 hours - or 20 hours - a week, in order to rake in seven figures annually.

    I am glad to see more academics expose the nonsensical world of law school. Paul Campos and Brian Tamanaha did a great job of informing potential applicants about the dangers inherent in obtaining a "legal education."

    http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot.com/

    http://balkin.blogspot.com/2010/06/wake-up-fellow-law-professors-to.html

    Your site has been on my roll for a while, even though it is not a scamblog. I love how you relate stories of hypersenstive academics.

    http://www.law.drake.edu/clinicsCenters/conLaw/

    In my Admin Law class, the instructor recalled a hilarious story involving Antonin Scalia. Many of the Supremes have guest lectured at Third Tier Drake, over the years. According to that man, Scalia went "absolutely crazy" because the someone at the school failed to bring his favorite Italian cheese to the banquet.

    I do remember seeing "educators" flip out in class whenever a student would provide an outline/Examples & Explanations answer to a hypoTTTheTTTical. If you were simply wrong, profs would usually take it easy on you. However, pupils who supplied canned outline responses to dumbass questions would be grilled. On a lighter note, I once made the Torts professor laugh when I mentioned a grizzly bear mauling someone due to a neighbor's negligence. At least some of these men and women have a sense of humor.

    I am glad that college graduates are starting to look at law school PRIMARILY as an economic decision. There is no valid reason to incur $135K+ in student debt, for a realistic chance to earn $40K-$50K per year. At least, now the law schools can no longer assert 97 percent employment placement rates in their brochures, viewbooks and websites - in order to lure in more lemmings.

    ReplyDelete
  19. The academic swindlers are just hanging on for as long as possible. Heaven forbid these pricks have to find a real job. One where they have to be productive, and help an employer make or save money.

    ReplyDelete
  20. http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/floridas-swollen-ranks-of-lawyers-scrap-for-piece-of-a-shrinking-legal-pie/2190047

    Favorite quote from an unemployed law grad:

    "At this point in time,'' he said, "I've come to the realization I'd really like to have a paycheck at some point.''

    Life sucks without money. Essentials like groceries, car insurance, cell phones and gasoline are not just given to you. At some point your law degree will have to generate money, otherwise what was the point. All those years in law schools, law professors were sucking down your student loan money to pay for their essentials. While you just kept racking up debt, now you have made your investment, have a big pile of debt and no one wants to pay you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep.

      I mean, if I could lean and whisper into this person's ear (think Godfather: Part III) I would whisper: Listen, listen...

      YOU WERE SCAMMED!! YOU SCHMUCK!!

      The schools and professors sucked down money you borrowed for their lifestyle and essentials. You were left with promises of a good lifestyle and plenty. All you got now is:

      NOTHING!

      Debt. Empty promises. A pocket full of broken dreams, and a worthless law degree.

      IT'S CALLED A SCAM. FFS.

      Delete
  21. The law school swine have become much less “selective.” With declining applicants, expect the cockroaches to admit an even higher percentage of applicants. Paul Campos posted an epic entry labeled “Endgame” – back on December 14, 2012. Check out his killer opening:

    http://insidethelawschoolscam.blogspot.com/2012/12/endgame.html

    “What are the economic implications for law schools of an admissions cycle that ends up attracting only 53,000 applicants? To answer this question, we have to estimate how many matriculants such a cycle is likely to yield. This is a function of two factors: how many applicants end up getting admitted to at least one school to which they apply, and how many admitted applicants actually end up enrolling.

    As to the first factor, the he percentage of applicants being admitted to at least one school has been rising for several years now:

    2004: 55.6%
    2005: 58.6%
    2006: 63.1%
    2007: 66.1%
    2008: 66.5%
    2009: 67.4%
    2010: 68.7%
    2011: 71.1%

    In other words, law school applicants were 27.9% more likely to be admitted to at least one school in 2011 than they had been seven years earlier. We don’t have numbers yet for how many 2012 applicants were admitted to at least one school, but since the number of applicants fell by 13.7%, while the number of new 1Ls fell by only 8.6%, it seems certain that the upward trend in percentage of applicants admitted continued.”

    Based on these numbers, you know that the law school pigs will not see an 8% drop in upcoming first year enrollment. I would not be surprised if this incoming cohort is only 4 percent smaller than last year’s group. Imagine if accredited U.S. medical and dental schools lowered their standards, in order to get more asses in seats while receiving fewer applications. Then again, those real professions care about protecting the investment of their future practitioners.

    ReplyDelete

 
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