Saturday, May 2, 2015

Employment Data for the JD Class of 2014, Now Ten Months After Graduation


http://jdunderground.com/all/thread.php?threadId=89221

Still Too Many Grads: On April 30, 2015 at 9:57 am, JDU accountholder “ichininosan” posted an original thread entitled “Class of 2014 Jobs Data.” Here is the information, which he derived from the ABA Section of Legal “Education” – Employment Summary Report:

“ABA has published it -- class of 2014, ten months out: 

Grads: 43,633 
Full time bar-required jobs: 24,481* 
Not Full time bar-req jobs: 19,152* 
Firms (1-10 lawyers): 7,472 
Firms (11-100 lawyers): 3,556 
Firms (101+ lawyers): 6,061 
Fed clerks: 1,246 

funded positions and putative solos not treated as full time employed” [Emphasis mine]

Yes, there are still too damn many graduates for the available number of attorney positions each year. What a wondrous “profession,” huh?!?! Notice the relatively miniscule number of article III clerkships, Lemming? How many of those posts – which typically lead to Biglaw or careers in legal academia – will be filled by TTT grads?! 

http://jdunderground.com/all/thread.php?threadId=89221#post1219394

At 10:43 am on the same day, the author then followed up with this insight:

“My take on the numbers -- very little has changed in the demand for lawyers. It's flat. There is a market for less than 25,000 new lawyers each year and law schools will continue to produce far more graduates -- at great cost to the students and taxpayer for as long as society permits, even if that means taking in sub-145 LSAT applicants who have little hope of passing a bar exam, and much less of finding employment that justifies the cost of attendance. 

Note the categories that are truly flat -- law firms with 11 or more lawyers and federal clerks. These are the categories that best reflect demand for lawyers. I've long suspected that the 1-10 lawyers category serves as a mixture of legitimate lawyer jobs and de facto quasi-unemployment recent graduates going solo or banding together to try to make it. And so, there were 3,141 fewer grads in 2014 and 467 fewer graduates entering the latter category. As class sizes decrease in the future, I expect there will be fewer graduates classified in the 1-10 law firm grouping. 

The one bit of good news -- class sizes are shrinking! 2013 was the largest class ever. 

The bad news -- given the cost, the number of grads for whom law school is a good economic proposition continues to be about 7,300 (about 17% of grads)[.]” [Emphasis mine]

Ichininosan nailed it perfectly, with that gem. Hell, in fact MANY recent Biglaw associates either burn out – or are dumped on their ass within 3-5 years. So unless they are able to pay off their student loans quickly, it might not be a wise investment for even members of this group. 

http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/track_job_outcomes_9_or_10_months_after_graduation_ABA_section_of_legal_ed/

Remember When the Metric Was Nine Months Upon Graduation?: Back on June 9, 2013, the ABA Journal published a Mark Hansen article entitled “Track job outcomes 9 or 10 months after graduation? ABA legal ed council to take it up in August.” From the opening:

“The governing council of the ABA Section of Legal Education and Admissions to the Bar has voted to defer action until August on a proposal to push back by a month the date on which law schools measure graduate employment outcomes… 

The proposal, put forth by the council’s data policy and collection committee, was to move back by a month the date that schools measure employment outcomes from Feb. 15, or nine months after graduation, until March 15. 

The committee based its [recommendaTTTion] on the fact that some states, like California and New York, are slow to report bar exam results, which it said works a particular hardship on schools located in those states and on schools whose graduates seek employment in substantial numbers in those states. 

Moving the employment status determination date from Feb. 15 to March 15 would help level the playing field between schools located in states that release bar exam results relatively quickly and schools located in states that take much longer, it said.” [Emphasis mine]

If you believe that the rodents extended the timeline, in order to benefit students or law grads, then you are in dire need of a brain stent. If a subsequent improvement in employment rate occurs, it looks better for the diploma mills – especially when they are seeking asses in seats.

Conclusion: In the final analysis, the American Bar Association cockraches moved the timeline back an additional month, in order to artificially improve the commodes’ employment “placement” rate. For $ome rea$on, the bastards didn’t give the law schools a 10 month window until now – even though the reasons stated above have existed for a long time. Then again, maybe it is just one hell of a “coincidence” that this proposal happened just as the published overall JD employment rate had been garbage for several consecutive years. However, the pigs cannot create full-time attorney positions out of thin air.

25 comments:

  1. Lies, lies, lies! Even graduates who don't get Biglaw firm jobs find well-compensated, JD-Advantage jobs at firms such as Taco and Bell LLP, Burger and King LLP, and Wal-mart INC. Some even get jobs at Chipotle's Corp., though they usually require Law Review on the resume.

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  2. Funny you mention those firms. I went to the Blackhawks game last night. (My brother in law gave us his tickets. Lord knows a shitlawyer can't afford NHL playoff tixx.) But that's besides the point. After the game, we went to a bar for a few drinks and our server was a law grad. They're everywhere.

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  3. If you don't have a good job lined up at graduation, there's a very good chance you'll never get one. In good legal jobs, for the most part, you are hired pending bar results, so you would start working right away. For non-legal jobs, they don't care at all to begin with.

    If you're still without a job 9 months after graduation, an extra month isn't going to make a lick of difference. You're probably pretty much done. In a few months they can hire from the next class, and you'll have a long gap where you didn't gain "experience."

    Not that "experience" matters much. You could work for 5 years in Big Law, then get canned, and you're done. That's why in Big Law as well, usually you are given a few months to find another job, where you've really been fired but there is that courtesy to let you use the firm name and employment status so that you don't have the dreaded resume gap.

    There are too many workers period in the US now. And law is one of the most saturated fields of all. I can't imagine it being all that different than retail associate or fast food worker in terms of saturation.

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    Replies
    1. If you don't land a Biglaw clerkship after your 1L year, you're looking at shitlaw. At best.

      Delete
  4. Speaking of law school pigs, I wonder what that bald-headed lunatic at Santa Clara thinks of the employment results at his own institution. Isn't that supposed to be the purpose of a law school, to prepare students for legal employment? Santa Clara's utter failure to do so not only destroys the lives of gullible young people, but undermines the rule of law itself.

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    Replies
    1. I've harped on it before, I'll harp on it again.

      NO, Santa Clara grads are NOT finding jobs as lawyers or any goddamned jobs at all...hell, they didn't even pass the bar.

      Santa Clara 2014 July bar pass rate: 60.4%
      Santa Clara 2013 July bar pass rate: 73%

      Steve should spend less time blogging about Koch money and more time preparing his students to pass the bar, because they're failing it at a high rate of late.

      Flush. Santa Clara.



      Delete
    2. Nando rollin in dem Cato bucks! Nando rich!

      Delete
  5. Unless you are brilliant enough to be at HYS, drop out after 1st year if NOT

    Top 50% Other elite law school
    Top 30% tier 1 trap school
    Top 15% Tier 2
    Top 10% Tier 3
    Top 1 % Tier 4 garbage school

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In other words, cut your losses while you can. Don't fall for the idea that "you can't quit now," aka the sunk cost fallacy.

      Delete
    2. As a recovering licensed attorney and graduate of a TTT, I would heartily agree with you both.

      Many times the scambloggers are mistaken for bitter or angry, unemployed people. I can assure you many of us scambloggers are not. I am and have been quite gainfully employer; I and many fellow travelers merely want the kids to HAVE THE TRUTH before making what for many ends up being a life-crippling, debt-ridden horrible outcome in some hapless parent's basement.

      Law school can, and does, work for some people. Just realize early on, kids, and cut your losses early if you aren't on track for that!

      You'll certainly know at the end of 1L!

      Delete
    3. Actually, yes, for most kids (unless connected) those would be pretty reliable numbers regarding likeliness of a good outcome.

      Delete
    4. That's too generous.

      There are only 13 law schools in the US from which at least 50% of the class gets a job in Big Law or a federal clerkship. Lowering the threshold to 40% brings in only 3 more law schools.

      All 189 law schools outside that group of 16 should be considered fourth-tier toilets. Unless you can attend free of charge (because of "scholarships" or Daddy) or have real connections, don't attend them at all. And there are many toilets that you shouldn't attend even with those advantages.

      Delete
  6. 420

    That advice should be amended to drop out after 1st semester if not in the groups listed

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  7. http://abovethelaw.com/2013/06/should-the-aba-push-back-jobs-data-collection-from-nine-months-to-ten-months-after-graduation/

    Here is Elie Mystal’s take on the “discussion” within the ABA, back on June 11, 2013. His entry was labeled “Should The ABA Push Back Jobs Data Collection From Nine Months to Ten Months After Graduation?” Check out this opening:

    “If it seems like a silly debate, it’s only because you haven’t been buttonholed by a law school dean who has had just about enough of your oh-so-funny jokes about his school.”

    Law deans, especially law deans of schools with underwhelming employment numbers, are convinced, convinced, that the “employed nine months after graduation” statistic vastly under-represents the value of their law degrees. Recent graduates of their schools who have been sitting around without jobs for nine months think that their law deans can go jump in a lake. But a small percentage of these grads will get jobs — mainly crappy, barely-legal jobs, which don’t begin to justify the massive investment they’ve made in legal education — between months nine and ten.”

    One of my all-time favorite comments from a poster on this site pertained to the deans’ thin skin. At a fundraising event, this commenter – who claimed to be an attorney and alum of the cesspool – asked the cockroach if he was familiar with scamblogs, inluding TTR. According to the guy, the dean said “No” – but his body language betrayed him, and it was evident that he knew of these sites. He got upset and left the conversation.

    Imagine if these sick bitches took such an interest in their students’ outcomes. At my TTT, the “Career Development” Office devoted more time to helping those in the top 10% of the class attain work than they did for those in the bottom 90 percent. Fellow students at Third Tier Drake were aware of this reality, and some of the more honest ones even vocalized this to others. After talking to JDs from other ABA-accredited diploma mills, and seeing their comments on scamblogs and other forums, this appears to be the case at most law schools.

    Yes, you read that correct, lemming. Those who will require the least amount of assistance in finding decent employment actually receive more help from CDO hags than the typical law grad who will be lucky to find toiletlaw or doc review. Do you still want to sign your life away, dumbass?!?!

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    Replies
    1. At my law school, which was on the élite end, the "Career" "Development" Office didn't help even those up at the top of the class. How do I know? Because I was up at the top of the class.

      Delete
  8. Later on, Mystal went to the heart of the matter:

    “As Jim Leipold explained at the big NALP conference this year (NALP, by the way, has no official position on this issue), the best way to look at the issue is through the lens of consumer information. The relevant date shouldn’t be an arbitrary point in time, but should be tied to when a student’s loans come due. Prospective students deserve to know whether or not they will be earning money at a time when they will be expected to start paying off their loans.

    From that standpoint, nine months is already a compromise in favor of the law schools. Most students need to start making payments before that date. Now I know this is a little hard for some law deans to understand, but people can’t pay back student loans with the fullness of their experience of three years of law school. They need money to do that, and for that they need jobs. Students going to schools that struggle to place people in jobs nine months after graduation should probably worry about taking on heavy debts to go to those law schools; that is the utility of the statistic.

    BUT… it’s also an undeniable fact that as the market for legal jobs has changed, the timing of getting jobs has also changed. Fewer people are getting jobs at or before graduation. That means a greater percentage of the jobs that are out there are being secured after graduation, and most people aren’t going to hustle a job after graduation until they pass the bar exam.

    State boards of law examiners haven’t caught up to this reality. Why would they? They’re state boards, and they couldn’t give a crap about the on-the-ground realities of the job market. Some states (EVERYBODY IS LOOKING AT YOU CALIFORNIA, JESUS MONKEY BALLS) take so long in processing bar exams that many students don’t have a lot of time to integrate passing results into a credible job search. This is especially true on the February bar. If your nine months start running in June, and you fail the July bar, but don’t find out until December, you won’t know if you passed the February exam before the nine months is up in a slow moving state.

    But that situation describes a vanishingly small percentage of people. I think a lot of people, myself included, would be inclined to go along with pushing back the collection period if law deans had collectively shown any commitment to honesty or transparency, any trustworthiness or integrity, or really any hint of moral or ethical standing when it comes to accurate representations of the value of legal education. But they have not. That’s the funny thing about trust: when you willfully piss it away through years of double speak and fuzzy math, nobody trusts you. I’d like to think that deans are honestly concerned with presenting the “most accurate” picture possible, but I can’t help noticing that many schools collect deposits on the next crop of students on or around April 15th. If I was a cynic, I might point out that the nine-month date ensures that the old crop is collected before the new crop has to commit, while the ten-month date allows for a lot of “we haven’t collected all the data yet” tomfoolery.”

    Seeing that the ABA cockroaches and “law professors” do not give one damn about the students and law grads, they have no concern that educational loans come due within six months of graduation. By the way, if you don’t have a good job lined up by graduation – whether it is dependent on you passing the bar exam or not – then the best you can hope for at that point is a garbage, low-paid, legal position.

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  9. I went to Nando's Third Tier Drake, and what he says about the Career office is true. They exist to help the Opperman Scholars get jobs. Everyone else is a prole.

    And, God help you if you ask for help after the 9 month (now 10 month) after graduation period... you're dead to them after that.

    If you ask Career Services to edit your resume, they'll pester you via email for details of the job you're looking at, and then they'll share that job info with their top students.

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    Replies
    1. Editing résumés is about all that the useless dolts in "Career Services" even try to do. And what qualifies them to edit résumés?

      Delete
  10. Been reading since late 2010. This shit is pure comedy. These well-paid administrative fucks are scrambling to cover their asses, and the end is near. This tectonic shift is mirrors the overleveraging of debt during mid 2006.

    I am not affected by the LS scam and have no skin in the game. However, reading about it made me think hard about higher education. I was thinking about getting a certificate in international tax from Golden Gate University (because I was HOPING it helps me get into international tax, which pays more), and then I remembered that the smart ones make it to top positions with the least rubber stamps. I dont need that shit, especially rubber stamps that barely existed 5 years ago. Fuck the higher education industrial complex.

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  11. Kids, even doc review is no guaranteed shot anymore, and many, if not most, of the doc review shops now want prior doc review experience, documented. You see, kids, there are enough starving, licensed attorneys out there that they can easily get that now.

    I myself got canned several times for being a general asshole and troublemaker. For example, there was a project on Rector Street that was actually pretty cool. This gig was for the NYC Law Dept, Civil Division. We got $30 an hour from an agency called "The Dine Group" to code docs for a construction lawsuit case involving the new Bronx Criminal Courthouse. There were lots of cool coders on this gig, we'd smoke pot during lunch, sneak beers and shit into work, etc. It was great. Also my seat-mate and I won the New Yorker magazine cartoon caption contest, which was a big deal at the time. We spent like 90% of the "workday" on that, so winning for once was a really, really big deal. We were the talk of the coder community after that score. It was the best feeling I've ever had in my entire life.

    But soon we started running low on docs on this gig, and everyone was waiting for the ax to fall. It was right before Xmas 2009, so everyone was trying to stack as much $$$ as possible since Jan/Feb are usually very slow for doc review work.

    So the staff attorney on this gig was a good ole' Southern belle from Tulane who really wasn't very hot. She also had sort of an annoying personality. She really thought she was a "Carrie Bradshaw" (that's what I called her) even though she shared some dump studio in Astoria, Queens with another loser coder. She was in love with her pathetic "authority," such as it was. Always bragging about hanging at "Corner Bistro" and fighting off all these I-banker suitors, etc. Like most coders, it was a complete fantasy world she'd spun for herself. Chick was a 6 at best.

    So when the docs really began running dry, I started taking like 200 cigarette breaks a day since my buddy Holbs had just been to visit from New Hampshire and dropped off like 20 cartons of Parliaments his girlfriend had shoplifted from the smoke shop. There was hardly anything else to do. And every time I'd leave the room, I'd say "see y'all later, if there is a later" and, at the end of the day, "see you all tomorrow, if there is a tomorrow." Things like that. Gallows humor and all. The gig was just about done, as I saw it. Docs were few and far between.

    But Carrie Bradshaw, being a southerner, didn't really find the humor in it. She called me aside like 20 times and lectured: "you're stirring up trouble, you smartass" and "I know for a fact there's more documents coming, that's why I'm the staff attorney." The old brag-a-rino. She really thought she was better than us regular coders because she went to Tulane.

    So one morning in front of everyone I asked if she grew up in a "double wide" down in Armpit, Arkansas or whatever and she got royally pissed. You could say she took great offense to it. So I went to lunch thinking nothing of it, fuck her.... and BAM- good old "Dine Group" agency calls before I cleared the lobby and says I was "rolled off the project, effective immediately." It was like 12 below zero outside, so I went to Blarney Stone and mowed a huge corned beef sandwich, then went to see a movie. Guess Carrie Bradshaw had some major juice to get me canned that quick.

    I was lucky.

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  12. If you're not going to a law school named Yale, Harvard or Stanford or your family isn't loaded then law school is a terrible fucking idea right now. I mean, it was a shit idea 10 or 20 years ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. THIS.

      It really *is* this simple. If it's not HYS and your family isn't juiced in, going to law skule is like putting your head into the guillotine and waiting for the blade to fall - which it inevitably will.

      And yes, it was bad 20 years ago. All this crap about c.2010.. Sorry. That's bullshit. The "downturn" in law has been going on for at least 2 decades. 2007 / 2010 merely saw an acceleration of the decline.

      Delete
  13. Kids, if you do insist on making a go of it in the law business, at least try to spend some time in an actual sh!tlaw shop beforehand, because that is destiny for most. It will sober you up at least on what the practice of law is really like in the trenches for those outside the preferred, protected and connected classes.

    A funny thing about personal injury firms is that they're almost pathologically cheap when it comes to office space & office supplies. Usually these firms are in some grungy little bodega-sized storefront in an outer borough, or in like windowless D-class Manhattan office space (mine was the latter).

    You see, personal injury "clients" are mostly dirt poor, uneducated folks- in fact, many are homeless. That said, it's pointless to piss away $$$ on nice offices and such since anywhere with chairs and running water is likely to be a huge upgrade from what they're used to.

    So when I first started at the firm I finished cutting/pasting a boilerplate motion together, and asked the boss where the exhibit tabs were kept. He looked at me like I'd asked him when my new Ferrari would be ready to pick up from the dealership.

    "I don't waste money on that shit," he said. Then he tells me to go next door and ask X (the other partner) where to get them from.

    So I roll in and X is screaming on the phone at some angry crackhead about her trip n' slip case and why she hasn't "got paid yet" and the typical ranting & shit. When he's done I ask him if he has any exhibit tabs. I forgot to mention that his office looked like the inside of a recycling depot, with about 10,000 old newspapers thrown all over, motions stacked up the ceiling, garbage pretty much everywhere.

    He grunts and then fishes a Defendant's motion from a pile of shit next to his desk, then pulls a bent flathead screwdriver from the desk drawer and proceeds to pry the Velotext binding apart. The he tosses me the loose exhibit tabs and says "I'll leave this screwdriver on the desk so you can use it whenever."

    That's how they rolled. Prying apart incoming motions to plunder their office supply content. Another funny thing was that they bought those knockoff printer toners from a dude on Canal Street who sold them off the back of a station wagon. They were terrible and all our papers looked like a charcoal briquette had been rubbed across them. One time a judge in Queens asked me if I moonlighted as a chimney sweep and was cracking up at how illegible the shit was.

    Another funny habit of my boss was bringing dead batteries back to Duane Reade. The office had one of those electric combination locks on it, since turnover there was so high that he'd have to change keys about 6 times a month if it had a regular lock. Easier just to re-program the combination when someone quit/got fired/committed suicide etc.

    So about every month or so the lock needed 4 new "AA" size batteries. The cheap ass would keep the battery package and have the secretary bring the dead ones back to Duane Reade scotch-taped into the pack and tell the clerk that they were dead when we bought them, etc. It worked every fucking time and was one of his big claims to fame. He said he learned that trick growing up in East New York, where he had a bunch of toy robots in the 1950s or whatever and always got free batteries by using that "trick."

    He was very popular because his robots always ran full steam on fresh batteries, which were apparently very expensive back then. He was the talk of the town.

    ReplyDelete
  14. http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2015/04/aba-releases-class-of-2014-.html

    Here is Paul Caron’s article on this subjecTTT, from April 30, 2015. It was labeled “ABA Releases Class of 2014 Law Graduate Employment Data.”

    “Following up on Saturday's post, Class of 2014 Law School Job Placement Rankings: Press Release, ABA Releases Law Graduate Employment Data for Class of 2014:

    Law schools reported a slight rise in the percentage of 2014 graduates obtaining entry-level jobs compared with 2013 and a slight decline in the total number of jobs, according to figures announced today by the American Bar Association's accrediting body. The two numbers are explained, in part, by the decrease in law school graduates from 2013 to 2014.

    The ABA Section of Legal Education and Admissions to the Bar released aggregate national data on law graduate employment outcomes for the class of 2014 and posted individual schools' post-graduate employment figures online. An online table also provides select national side-by-side comparisons between the classes of 2014 and 2013.

    The nation's 204 ABA-approved law schools reported that roughly 10 months after graduation, 31,160 graduates of the class of 2014, or 71 percent, were employed in long-term, full-time positions where bar passage is required or a J.D. is preferred. The 2014 figures break down as follows:

    • 26,248 graduates of the class of 2014, or 59.9 percent, were employed in long-term, full-time positions that require bar passage.
    • 4,912 graduates of the class of 2014, or 11.2 percent, were employed in long-term, full-time "J.D. advantage" positions where a law degree is preferred.
    • 9.8 percent of the class of 2014 were unemployed and seeking employment”

    The piece also noted that 11.2% of members of the JD Class of 2013 were unemployed within nine months of graduation. As you can see, the extra 30 days provided the law school pigs with enough time to boost the “placement” rate a little higher. What a great accomplishment, huh?!?!

    ReplyDelete
  15. The ABA sucks. Why change to ten months? Because slimy law deans want to juice numbers a little bit and maybe entice more people into the scam. Law schools and the ABA are scum. They engage in the most vile, dishonest business practices. Madoff has a better moral compass.

    http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150505/PC16/150509650/1009&source=RSS

    ReplyDelete

 
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