Friday, December 2, 2016
Education Professor States That 10-15 ABA Commodes Could Shut Down Due to Declining Enrollment
Booyah: On December 1, 2016, the ABA Journal featured a Stephanie Francis Ward piece that was entitled “10 to 15 law schools could close if enrollment keeps shrinking, higher-ed market analyst says.” Enjoy this spectacular opening:
“Although there’s been a contraction in the law school market, tuition continues to rise, including at private institutions that take first-year students with lower LSAT scores and have high attrition rates, says Robert Zemsky, a professor of education at the University of Pennsylvania. Zemsky predicts several of these schools will close if trends continue.
His study, Mapping a Contracting Market, analyzed 171 law schools and found that enrollment dropped by 21 percent at private law schools between 2011 and 2015. At public law schools, enrollment dropped by 18 percent. Zemsky also analyzed attrition rates at schools within both categories.
He found that while private schools with the lowest attrition rates and the best LSAT scores had the highest market price per student, those with the highest attrition rates and the worst LSAT scores still cost more than private institutions seen as second or third-tier law schools. Zemsky’s use of market price also figures in scholarships and grants received from schools, rather than just the listed tuition prices.
“You’d think the least attractive school would charge the lowest price. What they’re doing is admitting students with relatively low LSAT scores, and charging them a high price for gambling on them,” says Zemsky, who presented his findings at a recent Chicago conference hosted by the Access Group Center for Research & Policy Analysis.
If the law student market contracts further, it’s possible that between 10 and 15 schools will close, says Zemsky, a founding director of Penn’s Institute for Research on Higher Education. He notes that law schools are already losing money.
“You can’t continue to muddle through and hold your breath,” he told the Chicago audience on Nov. 16. “You can only hold your breath for so long.” [Emphasis mine]
Short of open admissions, enrollment will continue to decline. Smarter college graduates are avoiding law school in droves. At the rate of tuition increases, even waterheads are reconsidering this route. What the hell is the point of following a proven path to financial ruin?!?
Prior Forecasts: Back on November 3, 2016, Paul Caron wrote a TaxProf Blog entry that was headlined “After Indiana Tech, How Many More Law Schools Will Close? 20? 80? Will A Top 25 School Be Among Them?” Look at this conclusion:
“The likelihood of law school closures has been a hot topic among law school professors and bloggers for the past two years.
Jerry Organ, of University of St. Thomas, compared today’s law school environment to what happened to dental schools in the 1980s. Ten percent closed due to a significant decline in the number of applicants. Could 10 percent of law schools shut down, he asked?
Dorothy Brown, of Emory University School of Law, believes a top law school will shut down in the next two to four years. “Primarily, the law school would have to be hemorrhaging a lot of money over a sustained period of time with no end in sight,” she wrote. “Not just a one-time deficit, but millions of dollars in deficits over a sustained period.”
And David Barnhizer, of Cleveland-Marshall College of Law, said 80 law schools are at risk of closing. “Just as the legal employment market is over-saturated due to the surplus numbers of graduates law schools pumped into the system over the past twenty years, the productive capacity of the law school ‘industry’ is entirely out of balance with all foreseeable need for law graduates,” he wrote. “Given the direction the traditional employment markets for lawyers are heading no more than 80-100 law schools could easily serve America’s need for new law graduates.”
In a Kaplan Test Prep survey, 65 percent of law school admissions officers thought it would be a good idea if at least a few law schools closed.” [Emphasis mine]
I’m sure none of those admi$$ion$ cockroaches felt that their dung heap should be closed. Not a single one!
Back on October 3, 2012, Brian Leiter prognosticated that up to 10 ABA toilets could be shuttered within 10 years. His piece was labeled “Predictions about Closings of ABA-Accredited Law School Over the Next Decade.” To wit:
“That 15% think no law schools at all will close may be wishful thinking, but perhaps there is a sound explanation for thinking that correct. My own opinion was that we'll see several law schools close during the next decade, but probably not more than ten--and that was the majority view among readers by a wide margin. Most vulnerable are going to be free-standing law schools that are relatively young. Relatively young law schools part of universities that are in vulnerable financial shape are also likely candidates.” [Emphasis mine]
Conclusion: Since then, Hamline Sewer of Law merged with William Mitchell Commode of Law – and Indiana TTTTech Law $chool announced that it will shut down in July 2017. Thomas Cooley has “affiliated” with Western Michigan University and still had to close up its Ann Arbor campus, one among several . Other cesspits have been purchased by larger schools, such as Texas Wesleyan selling its ass to Texas A&M. Several ABA schools have had to slash support staff and buyout “professor” contracts. Enrollment continues to drop, and schools are taking in dumber students. Do you get the picture yet, cretin?! This is excellent news for humanity, but a blow to the greedy academic pigs. Again, do not piss away your future just so these “educators” can buy a vacation home or lease another Mercedes.
Posted by Nando at 5:21 AM